alisa
01-20 03:44 PM
This is all for EB-3.
I think this is the best case scenario.
Pardon my ignorance, but I am assuming that EB-2 eats up from EB-3's numbers, and so EB-2 wait times will be better than what is estimated here for EB-3, at the expense of the EB-3 waiting times ofcourse.
For India:
Depletion_rate = 10500/year
Accumulation_rate = 19500/year
For ROW:
Depletion_rate = 25000/year (Kinda curves-fits to retire all 2001 backlog by 2006, and 2002 backlog by 2008)
Accumulation_rate = 19500/year (Estimated to be the same as that of India)
All numbers rounded off. No
For 2001: Year_current = 2001 + (123194/Depletion_rate)
For 2002: Year_current = 2002 + (160274/Depletion_rate)
For 2003 and later
Year_current = Year_applied + ( (Year_applied-2002)*(Accumulation_rate-Depletion_rate) + 160274) / Depletion_rate
Here are the results. YA is year applied. YC is Year your PD will be current.
No processing delay assumed.
...........India.. ROW
D_rate 10000 25000
A_rate 19500 19500
YA YC YC
2001 2013 2006
2002 2018 2008
2003 2020 2009
2004 2022 2010
2005 2024 2011
2006 2026 2012
2007 2028 2012
2008 2030 2013
2009 2032 2014
2010 2034 2015
I am open to suggestions on how this model can be improved.
If this model, and these estimates are reasonably accurate, lets come out with our own visa bulletin.
I think this is the best case scenario.
Pardon my ignorance, but I am assuming that EB-2 eats up from EB-3's numbers, and so EB-2 wait times will be better than what is estimated here for EB-3, at the expense of the EB-3 waiting times ofcourse.
For India:
Depletion_rate = 10500/year
Accumulation_rate = 19500/year
For ROW:
Depletion_rate = 25000/year (Kinda curves-fits to retire all 2001 backlog by 2006, and 2002 backlog by 2008)
Accumulation_rate = 19500/year (Estimated to be the same as that of India)
All numbers rounded off. No
For 2001: Year_current = 2001 + (123194/Depletion_rate)
For 2002: Year_current = 2002 + (160274/Depletion_rate)
For 2003 and later
Year_current = Year_applied + ( (Year_applied-2002)*(Accumulation_rate-Depletion_rate) + 160274) / Depletion_rate
Here are the results. YA is year applied. YC is Year your PD will be current.
No processing delay assumed.
...........India.. ROW
D_rate 10000 25000
A_rate 19500 19500
YA YC YC
2001 2013 2006
2002 2018 2008
2003 2020 2009
2004 2022 2010
2005 2024 2011
2006 2026 2012
2007 2028 2012
2008 2030 2013
2009 2032 2014
2010 2034 2015
I am open to suggestions on how this model can be improved.
If this model, and these estimates are reasonably accurate, lets come out with our own visa bulletin.
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svr_76
02-18 05:55 PM
This is for the great aid of the undocument folks....this bill is meant more for them not for us folks...
Inapplicability of Numerical Limitations- When an alien is granted lawful permanent resident status under this subsection, the number of immigrant visas authorized to be issued under any provision of this Act shall not be reduced. The numerical limitations of sections 201 and 202 shall not apply to adjustment of status under this section.
Inapplicability of Numerical Limitations- When an alien is granted lawful permanent resident status under this subsection, the number of immigrant visas authorized to be issued under any provision of this Act shall not be reduced. The numerical limitations of sections 201 and 202 shall not apply to adjustment of status under this section.
deepimpact
09-11 02:41 AM
I understand how overflow gets distributed and Eb3-I is last in line. However , if net reduction is 35-40K each year starting 2010(i.e oct 2009 to oct 2010) and the backlog is 200 K at the beginning of 2010 (Inventory report) , we should work through all the backlog in 5 (40 *5) years.
That means in 2-3 years overflow should get to EB3 I because rest of the category will be current by then .
I agree people who applied in 2003 -2004 are looking at 10 year wait as against someone applying for EB3-I - today . Infact someone applying today will get GC in 5 years from now.
The actual backlog at beginning of 2010 is 200K (pending I-485) + all EB2 I/C and EB3 waiting to file I-485 from 2007-2010. The no of folks in EB2I/C and EB3 ROW from 2007-2010 will be about 80-100K. So instead of 2-3 years , overflow will start reaching EB3 in ~ 5 years.
That means in 2-3 years overflow should get to EB3 I because rest of the category will be current by then .
I agree people who applied in 2003 -2004 are looking at 10 year wait as against someone applying for EB3-I - today . Infact someone applying today will get GC in 5 years from now.
The actual backlog at beginning of 2010 is 200K (pending I-485) + all EB2 I/C and EB3 waiting to file I-485 from 2007-2010. The no of folks in EB2I/C and EB3 ROW from 2007-2010 will be about 80-100K. So instead of 2-3 years , overflow will start reaching EB3 in ~ 5 years.
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abhijitp
07-24 04:09 PM
USCIS has released a press release July 23, 2007. Check QUESTION 13
http://www.uscis.gov/files/pressrelease/EBFAQ1.pdf
Yes, but it does not mention EVL. If USCIS mentions the EVL in another press release, that would be the ideal scenario, but probably won't happen.
http://www.uscis.gov/files/pressrelease/EBFAQ1.pdf
Yes, but it does not mention EVL. If USCIS mentions the EVL in another press release, that would be the ideal scenario, but probably won't happen.
more...
thirdworldman
03-15 01:45 PM
I'm all for doing a robot; I'm also for a six week deadline with intermediary deadlines; the longer the better though--this is very time consuming and i'm going away for a few weeks.
alterego
09-17 10:37 PM
This is no doubt a bad time for the US economy. However the world is not going to collapse. We will nearly certainly see a recession. Outside chance of a depression. The credit markets are frozen, confidence has been shaken, housing is searching for a bottom, unemployment has ticked up a percentage point so far, and the stock market is down about 20%.
However, put that in the context of the great depression in the late 20s and into the early 30s. 25% unemployment, Widespread bank failures with no FDIC insurance, Many companies collapsed and people lost their life savings just by keeping it in the bank, Stock markets down by nearly 90%, people died of starvation! Yeah those things happened in this country. In fact, many observers attribute that experience for the extremely frugal nature of the elderly in this country, the so called great generation. Perhaps this will change current US attitudes away from consumption and toward savings. Perhaps entitlement reform will be fast tracked. We shall see.
Things are bad. Structural changes are needed. The war must be ended and the resources redirected. Americans also need to adjust to the new realities in a globalizing world some of which are not particularly appealing.
However also remember, the US has many geo-political advantages, control of a massive amount of natural resources, still the best R&D, an advanced industrial base, well developed infrastructure, and despite the current wall street mess no currency seems imminently capable of replacing the US dollar as the global reserve currency (hence giving the Federal reserve the enormous power of the printing press). Note that not a single currency has appreciated more than 5% viz a vie during this crisis. In fact Gold has outperformed all! Quite simply noone believes another economy is ready at this time.
Hopefully the job market will not get too messy. The market will bottom in the next 6 months or so, once their is a complete clean out of the balance sheets. We are probably past the half way point in this. Exactly when it ends noone knows however.
If you have savings consider putting it in blue chip consumer staples, when you feel there is a bottom in stocks. Diversify internationally, Consider letting your wife go on a gold buying binge............:).
Quit worrying, this too shall pass. This downturn will be longer than recent ones however. Might be measured in terms of a few years rather than months.
However, put that in the context of the great depression in the late 20s and into the early 30s. 25% unemployment, Widespread bank failures with no FDIC insurance, Many companies collapsed and people lost their life savings just by keeping it in the bank, Stock markets down by nearly 90%, people died of starvation! Yeah those things happened in this country. In fact, many observers attribute that experience for the extremely frugal nature of the elderly in this country, the so called great generation. Perhaps this will change current US attitudes away from consumption and toward savings. Perhaps entitlement reform will be fast tracked. We shall see.
Things are bad. Structural changes are needed. The war must be ended and the resources redirected. Americans also need to adjust to the new realities in a globalizing world some of which are not particularly appealing.
However also remember, the US has many geo-political advantages, control of a massive amount of natural resources, still the best R&D, an advanced industrial base, well developed infrastructure, and despite the current wall street mess no currency seems imminently capable of replacing the US dollar as the global reserve currency (hence giving the Federal reserve the enormous power of the printing press). Note that not a single currency has appreciated more than 5% viz a vie during this crisis. In fact Gold has outperformed all! Quite simply noone believes another economy is ready at this time.
Hopefully the job market will not get too messy. The market will bottom in the next 6 months or so, once their is a complete clean out of the balance sheets. We are probably past the half way point in this. Exactly when it ends noone knows however.
If you have savings consider putting it in blue chip consumer staples, when you feel there is a bottom in stocks. Diversify internationally, Consider letting your wife go on a gold buying binge............:).
Quit worrying, this too shall pass. This downturn will be longer than recent ones however. Might be measured in terms of a few years rather than months.
more...
gcdreamer05
03-19 07:29 AM
This is the power of Immigration Voice. Not everyone has the knowledge of all these situations, so we need to gain knowledge from the past experience of others.
I am sure thread's like this will help a lot of people who have plans to join few Full Time Employees who promise but cannot keep it up.
Please continue to share...
I am sure thread's like this will help a lot of people who have plans to join few Full Time Employees who promise but cannot keep it up.
Please continue to share...
2010 Dragon Ball Z Kai Part 4. is
same_old_guy
03-19 05:13 PM
Before EB2 moves faster, every EB3 guy will get a new LC and jump in to EB2 line. Then EB3 line will be little lighter and moves a little faster. Then people will start asking like this - "Can we go back to EB3 line ? Can we have 3rd EB3 LC ( like LC sells in walmart) and another 485 ?" . Pretty much everyone wants to have 2 LC , 2 I-140 and 2 I-485 at any time. That way whichever category moves faster they will beat the system.
Then we come to this forum and wonder why there is so much backlog or why USCIS is so slow ( my favorite one).
This madness has to stop !
Can EB2 move to March 06?
Then we come to this forum and wonder why there is so much backlog or why USCIS is so slow ( my favorite one).
This madness has to stop !
Can EB2 move to March 06?
more...
meridiani.planum
09-10 11:25 AM
I will update here for those who cannot enter chat
Right now they are discussing
H.R. 6598
the "Prevention of Equine Cruelty Act of 2008
I will update here once HR 5882 starts
ouch that is so ironic.... 'Equine Cruelty'?? What about 'immigrant cruelty'?
some of the priorities in this country are all screwed up...
Right now they are discussing
H.R. 6598
the "Prevention of Equine Cruelty Act of 2008
I will update here once HR 5882 starts
ouch that is so ironic.... 'Equine Cruelty'?? What about 'immigrant cruelty'?
some of the priorities in this country are all screwed up...
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jonty_11
03-18 03:35 PM
it will not move past March 2004....that is when PERM was started, and everyone with pending EB3's doubled-downed with a second EB2 application. Its time to feel the pain of that now!!!
more...
paskal
12-28 12:18 PM
i have never had that problem
may have been because you booked those flights separately, if they are on the same itinerary and both were booked through Thai, United should not do that, guess they don't care because you are not continuing on United. btw how could they demand money for the international part of the flight- they are not Thai and their rules don't apply...i also think the person you dealt with was ignorant...
the problem i have seen- you fly into the US and have a connecting flight onwards- if you take it withing 24 hrs ie same day- bags just continue- if not you are stuck with domestic rules. now it no longer matters on american carriers at least, intl allowance has also been decreased to 50 lbs.
may have been because you booked those flights separately, if they are on the same itinerary and both were booked through Thai, United should not do that, guess they don't care because you are not continuing on United. btw how could they demand money for the international part of the flight- they are not Thai and their rules don't apply...i also think the person you dealt with was ignorant...
the problem i have seen- you fly into the US and have a connecting flight onwards- if you take it withing 24 hrs ie same day- bags just continue- if not you are stuck with domestic rules. now it no longer matters on american carriers at least, intl allowance has also been decreased to 50 lbs.
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paskal
07-03 02:41 AM
I've said it before and I'll say it again - I don't see how the per country limit is unfair! It was set up so that immigrants from ALL nations would have EQUAL opportunity to immigrate to the U.S. and to prevent any one (or two) countries from monopolizing the visa numbers. Getting rid of the per country limit would most certainly lead to immigration from a limited number of sources (countries) and thus jeopardize the diversity of the immigration process. Getting rid of it would be like robbing Peter to pay Paul because those countries who are severely retrogressed now would only see limited benefits and those who are not all that retrogressed would fall backwards - is that fair!? It seems these forms are dominated by "certain" groups who have their own agenda and don't really care about ROW! It makes me feel uncomfortable being an IV member from ROW!
iv supports a package of measures that includes the recapture and STEM exemptions, not removal of country quotas in isolation. the idea is not to redistribute pain (though frankly country quotas give disproportionate pain to some- for what? being born "wrong'") but to end retrogression by simultaneously increasing numbers available and ending country quotas.
if you want to think about "fair" and "monopolies", i urge you to think of the current monopoly. i am an EB2 in health care- every ROW person with me, waltzes to current GCs and mine is many years away. i cannot change anything about the way i work for years...does my career have the same value as one from ROW? i did not apply for the job as an indian and i was not given a job as one. i had some qualifications that counted....why then are they suddenly subservient to my place of birth?
iv supports a package of measures that includes the recapture and STEM exemptions, not removal of country quotas in isolation. the idea is not to redistribute pain (though frankly country quotas give disproportionate pain to some- for what? being born "wrong'") but to end retrogression by simultaneously increasing numbers available and ending country quotas.
if you want to think about "fair" and "monopolies", i urge you to think of the current monopoly. i am an EB2 in health care- every ROW person with me, waltzes to current GCs and mine is many years away. i cannot change anything about the way i work for years...does my career have the same value as one from ROW? i did not apply for the job as an indian and i was not given a job as one. i had some qualifications that counted....why then are they suddenly subservient to my place of birth?
more...
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Indirant
03-07 08:45 PM
Varsha,
I have not heard any reply. waiting for repsonse to Ajay's request.
Thanks
Sekar
I have not heard any reply. waiting for repsonse to Ajay's request.
Thanks
Sekar
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desi3933
02-09 03:14 PM
And reply you will never get.
141,020 visa numbers used in FY2009
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY09AnnualReport_TableV.pdf
Look at the last page.
The worldwide level for annual employment-based preference immigrants is 140,000. So the usage was actually more.
__________________
Not a legal advice.
141,020 visa numbers used in FY2009
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY09AnnualReport_TableV.pdf
Look at the last page.
The worldwide level for annual employment-based preference immigrants is 140,000. So the usage was actually more.
__________________
Not a legal advice.
more...
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mpadapa
09-26 11:39 AM
I just got a call from Eilene Zimmerman regarding the article and she promised me that she is working on fixing the error soon
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nitkad
03-19 12:09 AM
Agreed.
:D
:D
more...
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piyu7444
01-31 04:39 PM
Well, you did not disclose before that she has pending I-485. That changes the whole scenario and provides lot more options.
She should change her status to AOS only by filing a new I-9 (provide EAD details) with her employer ASAP. This will cover her any period of unpaid leave (or benching). She can get back to H1 status by re-entering on H1 visa.
____________________
Not a legal advice.
US Citizen of Indian Origin
Thanks a lot Desi3933. I dont have words to thank you...
Another question - Once she gets on EAD does she have to get paid for 'x' number of period (Say 15 day or a month0 on EAD? And then when she re-enters on h1b (Nov 15 2009) then she will get paid from Nov 15 - Dec 31, so for year 2009 she will just have Jan month and 15 Nov till Dec 31 2009 on w-2. Is that fine since all the other time she was on EAD or out of country.
She should change her status to AOS only by filing a new I-9 (provide EAD details) with her employer ASAP. This will cover her any period of unpaid leave (or benching). She can get back to H1 status by re-entering on H1 visa.
____________________
Not a legal advice.
US Citizen of Indian Origin
Thanks a lot Desi3933. I dont have words to thank you...
Another question - Once she gets on EAD does she have to get paid for 'x' number of period (Say 15 day or a month0 on EAD? And then when she re-enters on h1b (Nov 15 2009) then she will get paid from Nov 15 - Dec 31, so for year 2009 she will just have Jan month and 15 Nov till Dec 31 2009 on w-2. Is that fine since all the other time she was on EAD or out of country.
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alias
06-10 01:37 PM
Incorrect. You have to submit proof of employment. Basically a letter from employer. If you are unemployed that that will raise a red flag and you cannot renew your EAD anyways. So current and future employment letter is a must for getting EAD. Sometimes they even ask you for salary slips if they suspect your employment. In this proposed amendment the employer also has an obligation to record layoffs and inform government. That makes it very tough for EAD guys to renew their EADs. Even if you are not working for the same company that filed your EAD, USCIS record can show there were layoffs and your applications will be in trouble. Expect lot of RFE and denials. Remember AC21 denials last year?
all you need to file an EAD renewal is:
copy of your old EAD
2 Passport photos
copy of I-94
& the filing fee
all you need to file an EAD renewal is:
copy of your old EAD
2 Passport photos
copy of I-94
& the filing fee
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gvenkat
10-20 01:24 PM
//Folks, look at the BIGGER picture, and not your own selfish needs. There is no point getting a GC to a land that was not the one you had in mind.//
well said.. but wait a minute.. why are we all debating.. we dont have voting rights... :D:D:D.. but whoever thinks mccain is the savior... god help them
well said.. but wait a minute.. why are we all debating.. we dont have voting rights... :D:D:D.. but whoever thinks mccain is the savior... god help them
Nil
03-17 11:31 AM
There are several of us who have been left with no choice but to file under EB3 by our employers, despite qualifying for EB2 at least.
Maybe the lawmakers should understand this plight...
Maybe the lawmakers should understand this plight...
angelfire76
02-13 05:03 PM
This is a real life example that happened a week ago. I was at the gym talking to a guy and he was asking where I was working. I told him and I got a look that suggested it was a crime for me to have a job.....No words exchanged but just the look of it...I could feel it..
Same sense of entitlement to everything landed the US in the soup they are in right now?
There are some very hard-working and bright people and I'm not generalizing here, but they need to understand the the foreign worker (who's probably being paid less than you to do the same job) is not the enemy. The unsustainable lifestyle is.
Same sense of entitlement to everything landed the US in the soup they are in right now?
There are some very hard-working and bright people and I'm not generalizing here, but they need to understand the the foreign worker (who's probably being paid less than you to do the same job) is not the enemy. The unsustainable lifestyle is.
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